The Indian side is vary of the Obama administration and is said to feel slighted due to certain US actions, including growing proximity to China. The US-China joint statement during President Obama’s Beijing visit which suggested Chinese mediation in resolving the Indo-Pak dispute, evoked sharp criticism from New Delhi. The visit would also be an opportunity for India to press the US to put more pressure on Pakistan to act strongly and urgently against terrorists operating from Pakistan.

Prime Minister Singh will attend the State Dinner at the White House on Tuesday, and hold talks with President Obama. He is also scheduled to speak at the Council for Foreign Relations and meet with the Indian-American business community. His next stop will be the Copenhagen summit on climate change.

Related links: PM Singh’s press statement before leaving on his tour.

The two countries also signed two trade agreements which involves setting up a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. The National Post reports that they “have set up the first study group that will set the parameters for full-scale negotiations that will likely get underway in about a year.”

The two leaders also talked about international terrorism, and Canada agreed to share information about Tahawuur Hussian Rana, who is believed to be involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. He was arrested last month by US authorities along with David Headley on suspicion of planning terror attacks in Denmark. Indian authorities want to question Rana and Headley for their involvement in the planning and execution of the attacks.

With the anniversary of the November 2008 terror attacks that killed some 166 people around the corner, the possibility of another attack is being expressed. Nuclear facilities and research centers are considered possible targets and security and patrolling is being increased. In the meanwhile the government has maintained that all nuclear facilities are adequately secure and these are only additional measures.

David Headley was recently arrested by US authorities on suspicion of planning terror attacks in Denmark. Since then it has been revealed that Headley possibly had direct contacts with the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attacks. He traveled extensively in India on fake documents and stayed at the Taj Hotel just days before it was attacked last year. Though the Indian authorities are still investigating his involvement, they are said to be sure of his relation with the Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT). According to the FBI Headley was “in touch with senior LeT operatives and other top terrorists in Pakistan, including Ilyas Kashmiri, a terrorist with links to Al-Qaeda and the Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami (HUJI), a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit.“  He also mentioned the National Defense College in New Delhi as a target during interrogation. Though India does not have an extradition treaty with the US, it plans to seek Headley’s extradition to probe his involvement in the 2008 attacks. Indian authorities are aggressively investigating Headley’s movements and links in India and hope that he provides the missing links in last year’s terror attacks.

Relations changed when last year Canada voted in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) to end the nuclear trade moratorium on India. This was a turning point in Indo-Canadian relations which might open avenues for economic and nuclear cooperation. The current visit is intended to revive the bilateral relationship based on shared principals of democracy and pluralism. The Vancouver Sun reports, “Harper’s advisers say the trip is designed to ring in “a new era of partnership” between the two countries and, in a background briefing with reporters earlier this week, argued that the trip was about much more than AECL, that its purpose was to develop a comprehensive and holistic relationship with India which, with 1.2 billion people, is the world’s largest democracy.”

Though economic cooperation is an important aspect of improving relations, some form of a nuclear agreement is speculated to be in the making. According to the Globe and Mail, “the signature piece of the trip is supposed to be a civilian nuclear agreement, which has existed in draft form since the summer. The accord would mirror similar deals reached by the United States, France and, mere days ago, the European Union.” The Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (AECL) CEO and officials from Cameco, “the uranium miner with significant operations in Saskatchewan” will also be present during the Prime Minister’s visit to New Delhi.

While nuclear cooperation is important for India’s growing energy needs, the Indian side should not overlook the importance of potential Canadian investments in businesses and infrastructure. Trade relations between the two amount to a meager (approx) $4.5 billion and there is tremendous potential for growth. Investments in energy (other than nuclear), science, information technology, telecommunications and other service industries should be explored. Higher education is also a potential candidate for strengthening relations and increasing awareness about each other. Ryan M. Touhey writes that in spite of Indians forming the biggest group of immigrants in Canada, ignorance about India is significant. “In 1960, the Canadian High Commissioner to India, Chester Ronning, curtly noted that while public relations between both countries were friendly it was a friendship based on ignorance, rather than knowledge. Ronning’s words continue to resonate today in terms of how both countries interact.” Neither India nor Canada can expect to build businesses or relationships without proper knowledge about the other. This situation needs to be rectified immediately.

The three day visit next week will most definitely pave the way for increased economic cooperation. But if a nuclear deal is announced it would be a significant step in bilateral relations. It might be another deal in the bag for India, but a significant advantage for Canada over the uranium rich Australia still indecisive about nuclear trade with India.

Japan-India relations have traditionally been cordial and cooperative with only a few hiccups. Considering its history with nuclear weapons, it was understandable that Japan suspended grant aid and loans for new projects, undertook a “careful examination” of loans to India by international organizations and tightened restrictions over transfer of technology after India’s 1998 nuclear tests. However, after a few years friendly relations were restored and economic and defense cooperation boomed.

Maritime security has been a prominent feature of Indo-Japanese defense cooperation especially since the turn of the century. According to the Japanese Defense Ministry website, “Between the coast guards, combined exercises on anti-piracy, search & rescue etc. have been conducted every year since 2000. Heads of coast guards of both countries visit each other almost every year. The two coast guards exchanged a Memorandum on Cooperation at the occasion of commandant Ishikawa’s visit to India in November, 2006.”

The Indian Ocean is an important trade sea-line for both countries and there is a lot of room for improving cooperation in securing the trade routes in that region. Piracy along the Coast of Somalia and increasing terrorist threats from the sea indicate that India could use the expertise of a sea-faring country like Japan in security its coastline. The Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation between Japan and India signed last year calls for an “action plan with specific measures” which should be created and implemented at the earliest.

” This movie is a snooze fest.
Which is unfortunate because the subject, Amma, is fascinating. What director Jan Kounen appears to have tried is to provide a documentary about the life of Amma, a mahatma in India. However, it falls short somehow. There are long periods of film showing the thousands of people who line up for hours just to be held briefly by Amma, known as “the hugging saint.”

The changes to the Defense Procurement Procedure according to a Defense Ministry press release are aimed to provide “encouragement to the indigenous Defence Industry to play a major role in meeting the needs of the Armed Forces, ensuring transparency and accountability in all procurement cases.”  The policy change will potentially open up a $100 billion market over the next ten years for Indian defense companies. Reuters reports, “with foreign countries reluctant to share advanced technology with India, the government wants to encourage private defence companies to enter the arms market, officials say.” The Indian government intends to spend more than $30 billion over the next five years and upgrade its primarily Soviet-era equipment. (Link) (Link)

In other news, the Indian Coast Guard will add 3000 additional personnel and numerous ships and air-crafts. Speaking at the 28th Coast Guards Commanders’ Conference the Indian Defense Minister announced that 3000 new personnel will be added to “make it a potent force to combat terrorism from the sea.” The Indian government has concentrated on tightening security along its coasts after the terrorist attacks on Mumbai last year. The terrorists were found to have entered Mumbai through the Arabian Sea. Detailing the infrastructural increments to the force the Minister said, “the Coast Guard is in the process of acquiring 20 Fast Patrol Vehicles (OPVs), 41 Interceptor Boats, 12 Coastal Surveillance Aircraft(Dorniers) and 7 off-shore Patrol Vehicles(OPVs)…work is in progress to put in place a chain of 46 Coastal Radars spanning 9 Coastal Stations across the country. Moreover, 9 new Coast Guard Station have been approved.“

The only Indian security personnel present in Afghanistan were sent to protect Indian workers involved in reconstruction and rehabilitation work there. These paramilitary force guards were deployed after a spate of kidnappings and attacks against Indian workers. The Indian Embassy in Kabul has been attacked twice in two years (July 2008, October 2009). Though no Pakistani involvement has been proved in the 2009 bombing, US intelligence reports confirmed ISI involvement in the 2008 bombing.

Instead of military involvement, India is the second largest contributor after the US and has spent almost $2 billion on humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan so far. Jayshree Bajoria at the Council on Foreign Relations writes, “In January 2009, India completed construction of the Zaranj-Delaram highway in southwest Afghanistan near the Iranian border; it is building Afghanistan’s new parliament building set for completion by 2011; it is constructing the Salma Dam power project in Herat Province; it has trained Afghan police officers, diplomats and civil servants; and it has provided support in the areas of health, education, transportation, power, and telecommunications.”

In spite or because of the significant humanitarian assistance being provided by India, Pakistan has frequently raised doubts about the real motive for Indian presence in Afghanistan. The Indian consulates in Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, and Kandahar are accused as being facilitators for covert Indian intelligence operations against Pakistan. According to them India does not have reason for such a huge presence in Afghanistan and is undermining the stability of the region. Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar writes at War and Peace, ” (Pakistani) Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi publicly warned on Monday … that Indians “have to justify their interest” in Kabul. He told Los Angeles Times that India′s “level of engagement [in Kabul] has to be commensurate with [the fact that] they do not share a border with Afghanistan, whereas we do … If there is no massive reconstruction [in Afghanistan], if there are not long queues in Delhi waiting for visas to travel to Kabul, why do you have such a large [Indian] presence in Afghanistan? At times, it concerns us.” It does not help that Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai studied in India.

Though the US has been supportive of Indian efforts in Afghanistan the attitude seems to be changing. During a recent testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Milton Bearden said, “Though Pakistani concerns over Indian involvement in Afghanistan have in the past been dismissed by American officials as overwrought, they are nonetheless real; and it is correct that these concerns are being taken more seriously now by the United States.”

Even if the US’ attitude changes and Pakistan’s allegations continue, the Indian government should stand firm in its resolve to provide necessary humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. A perceived shift in the balance of power in the region by a few countries should not keep India from fulfilling its duties as a neighbor and regional power. The Afghan people need all the reconstruction and rehabilitation assistance possible to survive the prolonged war. India also needs a friend to its West when relations with Pakistan are deteriorating. Indian foreign policy cannot be dictated by one country; and if the ultimate goal of policy is for India to be a big player, involvement in Afghanistan is prudent and necessary. It would open up new business and diplomatic opportunities in countries in Central Asia and Iran. It could possibly help soften India’s Big Brother image among SAARC countries. The good work in Afghanistan needs to continue unhindered in the interest of both countries.

Pakistan accuses India of funding the Taliban. Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik said in a television interview that he was convinced that India is among “certain hostile agencies” that are backing the Taliban with the purpose of creating instability in Pakistan. “There are certain hostile elements against Pakistan and there are certain hostile agencies which do not want Pakistan to be (stabilised).” In response to a question on whether India is among the hostile agencies, Malik said, “Yes, of course, I am convinced. I have no doubt about it. I was very open. I have given the full details.” Indian Foreign Ministry officials have rubbished the reports as “baseless” and “preposterous”.

Winter months in the J&K region can be very harsh and pose logistical problems for the military and Border Security Forces. They routinely abandon some forward posts during these months and also reduce surveillance in certain areas. This means that militant intrusions into Indian territory increase as they try to take advantage of the decreased military presence and sneak in during these months. The Kargil war (May-July 1999) between India and Pakistan had its beginnings in such intrusions across the Line of Control (LOC). The recent media report about ISI and Taliban collaboration indicates that  infiltrators would again try and use the winter months to cross the LOC. Armed with sophisticated weaponry, communication systems and training the Taliban militants could pose an even greater problem for the Indian military forces.

While it is possible to imagine such a scenario considering prior ISI-Taliban relations in Afghanistan, it does not seem to be a prudent plan. The Indian Ministry of Defense recently recommended strengthening military presence along the border and will also be stationing its upgraded MiG-29s even closer to the Pakistan border. If the Taliban militant’s infiltration leads to another war between India-Pakistan, it would be very difficult for Pakistan to win. Pakistan has so far never won a war against India, and its current economic situation does not seem to suggest that it could sustain one this time either. Pakistan is under pressure from the United States to crack down on terrorists and cooperate with India. “They have been told in no uncertain terms that Pakistan can no longer afford to have two different standards for terrorists one for the terrorists targeting the West and other for the terrorists who use Pakistani soil against India, sources said.” The US has also redirected its war energy towards the Af-Pak region and such a diversion of Taliban militants into India stands the risk of being detected early. In case of a war it seems unlikely that the US would side with Pakistan.

But if the report is true and the Taliban enter Indian territory, it could be a really serious security concern. The Taliban have a history of sustaining against the likes of the US army and this makes them a greater threat than other Pakistani militants who receive a few months of training. They are used to treacherous terrains and weather conditions in Afghanistan and would be able to sustain in the mountains of J&K. The thing that could work against them is their inexperience with the Indian military, and lesser passion for jihad against India. It is unlikely that the Taliban militants share the same hatred for India and desire to acquire J&K as other terrorists attacking India. The effects of  a long-term Taliban presence on the social fabric of the region can only be imagined.

So far both the Indian and Pakistan governments have not commented upon the media reports. Whatever their public posture it would not be a good idea to completely disregard the idea that Taliban militants would be used against India.