As India steps into a new decade it seems ready to take on the world. But this process will not be without some big challenges. While terrorism and internal security are crucial concerns, sustaining the rapid economic growth and making India easier and safer to do business with are also huge challenges. With the India-US civilian nuclear deal and subsequent waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, India is starting to make its presence felt on the global stage. But it seems to fall short of standing out as a power to reckon with in the future.

In a thought provoking piece in the Indian Express, K.S. Bajpai tackles how India currently handles its foreign affairs and says that it needs to “learn to pursue commonalities alongside managing differences.” He is very critical of how security issues are handled by the Indian government because of having being a part of it at the ambassadorial levels.

“The unbelievable ways in which we run ourselves are frightening enough; worse still is our indifference to the consequences for our security. Unless we organise ourselves to function as an efficient, purposeful state, we will get neither the influence nor the respect which can pre-empt conflict.“

Another insightful and critical piece comes from Harsh Pant at the LiveMint. He asks what the purpose behind India’s ambition to be a global player is, since it does not seem to project a definitive purpose or ideal as a country. He points out that

“India does not yet have the capacity to project what it stands for. The French philosopher Raymond Aron has suggested that the legitimacy of a great power diminishes if that power is not associated with a vibrant set of ideas. The global reassessment of India is primarily predicated on its recent economic rise. But India’s rise will remain incomplete in the absence of a credible vision with a larger purpose. India not only appears to be devoid of big ideas backed by assertive political conviction, but also continues to lack the intellectual infrastructure essential to debate and achieve clarity on what being a great power means for India.”

C.V.Madhukar at the Indian Express also points out the important shortcomings in Indian governance and gives three areas which require maximum attention. According to him the Indian Parliament needs to be thoroughly evaluated as “our Parliament as an institution of governance has failed to live up to the expectations of a nation of a billion people.” It is time to look at how it works and makes changes for better governance. Madhukar also hopes that the future belongs to young members of Parliament who can bring in a modern perspective and ideas to the working of the government and political parties.

He touches upon what is seriously lacking in Indian policy making, public engagement. He rightly points out that “beyond the sensational, there is little informed discussion of politics or policy. Many existing “think tanks” appear to be more focused on producing research output than in engaging more widely with policy makers.”

It has been my personal experience as a student of political science and part of the media in India, that serious policy discussions are hard to come by. In a country where everyone has an opinion about cricket and politics, the lack of informed debate on matters of importance is appalling. As pointed out by the three writers mentioned earlier, India has the ambition and the potential, what it lacks is the intellectual and political backing to achieve it. As information technology opens up the world and connects people, it is my hope that we will see more constructive public participation from Indians in the next decade. The Manmohan Singh government and the Prime Minister himself, inspire confidence that the political will to propel the country onto the world stage will not be far behind.

Fire at Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC): A fire broke out in a laboratory at India’s premier nuclear research facility yesterday. Though no danger of radiation due to the accident was reported, two research students were killed in the fire. The cause of the fire is unknown. Earlier this month three people were arrested for illegal possession of five kilograms of depleted uranium. In November, 55 workers at the Kaiga Atomic Power Station in Karnataka were exposed to excessive radiation by drinking water contaminated with tritium. The incident was attributed to “an insider’s mischief” by Indian authorities.

Japanese Prime Minister asks India to sign the CTBT: During his visit to India for the Annual Bilateral Summit, Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama called upon India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The Indian Prime Minister assured him that India would do so after the United States and China ratify the treaty. In their joint press statement the two leaders “supported the immediate commencement of negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament and an early conclusion of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).” The also talked of improving bilateral security cooperation as per the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation signed between the two countries in 2008. India and Japan will also look at improving bilateral economic and energy cooperation

Arihant, Arjun and Bhisma among highlights of Defense Ministry’s year end review: Indigenization and modernization of the India Armed Forces through procurement of state-of-the-art weapons were said to be the highlights for the Defense Ministry in a press release today. “The Army’s focus during the year was on indigenization with the induction of locally built MBT Arjun and T-90 Bhishma tanks.” In July India launched its first nuclear submarine, Arihant. The Ministry paid special attention to strengthening coastal security after the sea-borne terror attacks on Mumbai in 2008. Efforts are being made to increase intelligence sharing between all maritime agencies. “All coastal security operations are now coordinated from the Joint Operations Centre, which are manned round the clock by Naval and Coast Guard teams. In addition, the state Marine Police and other agencies such as Customs, Intelligence Bureau, Ports etc are also networked with these centers.”

India’s Union Home Minister, P Chidambaram has proposed setting up a National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) as part of a plan to radically restructure the country’s security apparatus. Delivering the 22nd Intelligence Bureau Centenary Endowment Lecture he said that given the scope and urgency of internal security, it is necessary to separate the non-internal security related functions from the Home Ministry. Mr Chidambaram said,

“Subjects not directly related to internal security should be dealt with by a separate Ministry or should be brought under a separate Department in the MHA and dealt with by a Minister, more or less independently, without referring every issue to the Home Minister.  The Home Minister should devote the whole of his/her time and energy to matters relating to security.”

Mr Chidambaram said that initial reforms to the security structure since the Mumbai attacks have improved India’s capacity to contain and repulse a terrorist attack. However, more needs to be done before India can be said to have the capacity to “respond swiftly and decisively.” The Mumbai attacks had brought forth the lack of communication between the intelligence and law enforcement agencies in India. The response to the attacks was full of chaos and many policemen were martyred.

To improve the communication and intelligence sharing among all security agencies in the country, the Indian government is working on setting up a NATGRID and Crime and Criminal Tracking Network System (CCTNS). Mr Chidambaram said that the NATGRID project would take 18 to 24 months to complete and will network 21 sets of databases “to achieve quick, seamless and secure access to desired information for intelligence/enforcement agencies.” The CCTNS system will “facilitate collection, storage, retrieval, analysis, transfer and sharing of data and information at the police station and between the police station and the State Headquarters and the Central Police Organisations.”

Elucidating the importance of the police forces in law enforcement and intelligence gathering, Mr Chidambaram said that it is necessary to recruit more people to strengthen the state police forces. The ratio of police to every 100,000 people in India is only 130, as compared to the international average of 270. Therefore, an additional recruitment of around 400,000 police personnel over the next two years is essential.

The Home Minister’s ambitious plans for restructuring the security apparatus are sure to face political and bureaucratic resistance. India has the manpower and technological know-how to implement the NATGRID and CCTNS, and only bureaucratic resistance to change could stand in the way of making the most of it. However, if successful, it could significantly alter how the Indian intelligence and security forces interact, and help avoid the mistakes of 26/11. They would help deal with internal rebel groups such as the ULFA and Naxals who are threatening to destabilize various parts of the country. The possibility of these groups aligning with external terrorist organizations cannot be ruled out.

Mr Chidambaram’s actions during his first year in office have been positive and it seem plausible that he shall be able to implement his reorganization plans. Like the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, he is respected for his integrity and tenure as the pro-reform Finance Minister. He has the trust of his Prime Minister and party leader, as was evident in his appointment to the second most important ministry in the country immediately after the Mumbai attacks. If Mr Chidambaram manages to reform the Indian security apparatus, it would significantly boost his political career and bring him closer to being the future Prime Minister of India.

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Read the full text of Mr Chidambaram’s speech here. It gives a good overview of India’s current intelligence and security structure.

A report, investigating the state’s response to the Mumbai attacks last year, has blamed then Commissioner of Police (CP) Hasan Gafoor of “absence of overt leadership” and “lack of visible command and control at the CP’s office.” Gafoor was heavily criticized by the media and state government, and was transferred from his post two months after the incident.

The Ram Pradhan Committee report tabled in the Maharashtra State Assembly yesterday, said that Gafoor failed to follow the Standard Operating Procedures which required him to be present in the control room. Doing so would have prevented the duplication of efforts and chaos among the different police units fighting on ground, it said. However, the former CP was found to be on scene at the Trident Hotel, one of the sites of the attack.

No other policemen were singled out for lapses or poor performance by the Committee. It praised Director General of Police A N Roy, for making “himself available to provide information and offer[ed] help while taking care not to intrude into the functioning of Mumbai Police officers.” The report also praised the Joint Commissioner of Police (Crime) Rakesh Maria for effectively handling a very serious crisis situation.

In what seem to be contradictory findings, the report noted that there was “total confusion in processing intelligence alerts at the state level“, but “did not find any failure to act on inputs by the central intelligence agencies“.  Media reports earlier this month quoted the present CP of Mumbai, D Sivanandan of informing the Ram Pradhan Committee of  “systemic loophole [was observed] in the way intelligence from Central agencies is processed at the state level in the DGP’s establishment.” The former State Intelligence Chief reportedly told the committee that in spite of being the central authority on intelligence in the state, central intelligence reports did not come to him directly. He was therefore unaware of “any intelligence alert on terrorism prior to November 26, 2008, even though there were 17 alerts since August 7, 2006, talking about the possibility of sea-borne attacks and of multiple and simultaneous fidayeen attacks.”

The Ram Pradhan Committee report has recommended urgent upgrading and strengthening of the Quick Response Teams formed in 2003. It also provided a blueprint for the reorganization, training, equipment and service conditions.The report calls for a review of the preparedness of other police administrations in the state.

In other related news, Ajmal Kasab, the lone surviving terrorist captured during the attacks, has claimed that he is being wrongly framed by the Mumbai police. During his final statement to the court, he accused the police of forcing a confession out of him and claiming that he has never held an AK-47. He said that he never underwent any training with the LeT, and that his bullet wounds are from the police firing at him at the police station. Special Public Prosecutor Ujjwal Nikam said that Kasab’s retraction will not affect the case adversely as sufficient evidence and eye-witness accounts against Kasab have been presented before the court. Kasab was caught on camera as he went on a killing spree at the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus.

Overview

The 2008 Mumbai attacks dominated the news and cast a long shadow that affected India’s actions in 2009.  The investigations, compilation of dossiers detailing Pakistan’s involvement and prosecution of the perpetrators of the attack were the highlights of the past year. Evidence of the terrorists’ direct links with Pakistan increased tensions. The composite dialogue between the two countries came to a halt.

The attacks tested Indo-US relations, as India sought more cooperation from the new US administration burdened by a financial crisis and the Afghan/Iraq war. When the US hosted the Indian Prime Minister in November, there were perceived slights and disappointments. The Obama administration tried to comfort Indian apprehensions by promising to implement the civil nuclear agreement signed during the Bush administration. Since the Nuclear Supplier Group’s waiver in 2008, India has signed nuclear agreements with Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Namibia this year.

Towards the East, tensions with China increased around the time of the 13th Indo-China border talks in August. Both countries increased military presence along the disputed border areas, even as leaders on both sides tried to play down any differences. However, India took steps to improve trade relations with the Far-East Asian countries and concluded FTA’s with ASEAN and South Korea.

India also rejoiced at  the launch of its first nuclear submarine, and the discovery of water on the moon by its maiden lunar mission, Chandrayaan-1.

Person of the Year

Manmohan Singh became the first Indian Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, to return to power after completing a full five-year term. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was reelected with a stable majority, a win widely credited to Dr. Singh.  The opposition tried to project Singh as a weak PM who took orders from Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.  But such personal attacks, against a man known for his integrity, did not go down well with the Indian public resulting in a resounding defeat for the opposition. Singh is viewed as the architect of the current economic growth which began when he opened India’s economy as its Finance Minister in 1991. He was instrumental in passing of the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement in his first term. With a stable majority negating the need for support from the communist parties, who had hobbled his agenda in the first term, Singh can now chart his own agenda and further cement his role in the nation’s history.

Most Unexpected Event

Poor voter turnout, particularly in Mumbai, during the 2009 General Elections was one of the most unexpected events of the year. After the horror of 26/11, Mumbai saw thousands of citizens out on road. Their ire was targeted at the elected officials and the outrage indicated that the mid-year elections would see massive voter turnout. The urban youth especially had been vociferous in their reaction and were widely expected to register their outrage during the national as well as state elections. Candidates’ efforts, media and public participation led to various voter registration and outreach activities prior to the elections. There was an applaudable use of the internet and other social networking avenues to inform voters about issues and candidates.  However, everyone was shocked when the turnout was just 44 percent, even lesser than in previous elections.  Such apathy on part of the voters brought to fore the question of accountability as in the Maharashtra state elections (Mumbai is the state’s capital) the same government, whose Chief Minister and Home Minister resigned after the attacks were reelected.

What to Watch for in 2010

Commonwealth Games: India will host one of the biggest international sports event in its history. The 19th Commonwealth Games will be held in New Delhi in 2010. A total of 71 countries are expected to participate in 17 different events. The Games a matter of pride for India and an avenue to showcase its infrastructural development and sporting capabilities.  Security at the games will be of prime concern. Terror free success of the Games would go a long way in assuring the world that India is safe for business and travel, while sending a strong message to terrorists.

President Obama’s visit: Obama has accepted Singh’s invitation to visit India in 2010. Former President Clinton had charmed Indians during his visit, while President Bush’s visit led to the finalization of the landmark nuclear deal. So far Indians are not sure how the Obama administration sees India’s role in the larger South Asia region. With Af-Pak dominating strategic calculations, India fears being considered only through the lens of its relations with Pakistan, rather than as a vibrant democracy having shared values and common strategic interests with the United States. Manmohan Singh’s US visit in November 2009 did not help in allaying these apprehensions on the Indian side. 2010 will tell us if Obama’s visit can change this perception.

Kasab sentencing and the 26/11 investigation: The trial of the lone surviving terrorist Ajmal Kasab for the Mumbai attacks will end in 2010. But the 26/11 investigations regarding David Headley and Tahawwur Rana’s role in the attacks and their association with the Pakistan based terrorist group Lashkar e-Taiba will continue well into 2010. India is expected to continue applying pressure on Pakistan to act on the evidence provided and bring to trial the masterminds behind the heinous attacks.

Universal Identification card:  Starting 2011 Indians are expected to receive a national ID card. Next year will see a vigorous debate regarding the necessity and scope of the ID in view of privacy concerns. These cards will also be a test for the country’s bureaucracy as these cards will cover over 1 billion people.

As details of David Headley’s visits to India before the 26/11 attacks come forth, India has changed its long-term tourist visa regulations.

As per the changes, tourists with long-term visas would “no longer be allowed to enter India within two months of their last departure from India if their last visit was longer than ninety days or if they have stayed longer than 180 days during the past year.”

More information is available at the travel advisory here.

An interesting discussion about whether India should send troops to Afghanistan at the blog, Acorn.

Most of the people think that it would be an imprudent move to get involved militarily in Afghanistan. Some of the most recurring concerns are about the protests from Pakistan, the effect such involvement would have on the situation in Jammu & Kashmir and terrorism in India, and increased reliance on the US in foreign affairs. I have previously argued in favor of continuing the reconstruction and rehabilitation work in Afghanistan, and stick by it in the debate.

A beautiful video at the Atlantic, of the Royal Gurkha Regiment fighting in Afghanistan, and the bonds they have created with the Afghans. The video shows them bonding over Bollywood, Urdu and certain common cultural elements.

Barely a month since the Kaiga Atomic Power Station accident that exposed 55 workers to excessive radiation, India had another nuclear related incident today. In Mumbai three people were arrested on charges of illegal possession of five kilograms of depleted uranium. Though it is unknown how they obtained the uranium, the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) has assured that the stolen uranium is not dangerous. D N Sharma, Head, Radiation Safety Systems Division, BARC told the DNA, “Depleted uranium has less U-235 (used in nuclear reactors) as compared to natural uranium. In the seized substance, this percentage is 0.2%,” and cannot be used to work as an explosive.

The Kaiga incident was termed as “an insider’s mischief” by Indian authorities. Today’s incident might be explained off as something similarly dubious. But the fact is that India needs to revisit the security of its nuclear operations. With aggressive plans to expand power generation through nuclear energy and nuclear deals with half a dozen countries, it is imperative that security at India’s nuclear installations is foolproof. Not only is it essential as a good business practice, but also for the security of the people and nation at large. Last month all nuclear installations across India were put on high security alert fearing potential terrorist attacks. The government had also asked the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) to review security measures at all stations. Minister of State for Science and Technology, Prithviraj Chavan recently told the Lok Sabha, “The processes, procedures and human performance aspects of all stations of NPCIL are being reviewed again to carry out reinforcements as appropriate.”

India might not have had a Chernobyl, and incidents like today may be small, few and far apart in time. But as a nuclear weapons country in a volatile region, it needs to negate any possibility of nuclear accidents- big or small, and assure the world about its security measures. It would be unfortunate if India gave the world a chance to worry about its nukes, just as they have been worried about Pakistan’s arsenal.

US authorities today filed charges against David Headley for his involvement in the planning and execution of the November 2008 terror attacks on Mumbai. According to a US Department of Justice press release, he

“was charged in a 12-count criminal information with six counts of conspiracy to bomb public places in India, to murder and maim persons in India and Denmark, to provide material support to foreign terrorist plots, and to provide material support to Lashkar, and six counts of aiding and abetting the murder of U.S. citizens in India.”

David Headley was arrested in Chicago on October 3, 2009. It has since been revealed that he visited India on several occasions for almost two year prior to the November 2008 attacks. His purpose was to scout for possible targets and create a plan of action. The press release further mentions that,

“after each trip that Headley took to India between September 2006 and July 2008, he allegedly returned to Pakistan, met with other co-conspirators and provided them with photographs, videos and oral descriptions of various locations. In March 2008, Headley and his co-conspirators discussed potential landing sites for a team of attackers who would arrive by sea in Mumbai, and he was instructed to take boat trips in and around the Mumbai harbor and take surveillance video, which he did during his visit to India starting in April 2008.”

A FBI team is currently visiting India to provide Indian authorities information about the activities of Headley and his associate Tahawwur Rana.

Interestingly, charges have also been filed against Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, a retired major in the Pakistani army, for collaborating on planning attacks in Denmark. If the FBI is successful in proving these links, it would help add more substance to India’s repeated claims of the Pakistani army and ISI’s direct involvement with terrorists.