A three day ‘International Conference on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy‘ began in New Delhi today. Addressing the conference IAEA Chief, Mohamed ElBaradei called upon the global community to hear India’s voice on nuclear disarmament. He expressed optimism about achieving complete nuclear disarmament and said that “we have to start laying the groundwork for a global security system that does not depend on nuclear weapons; a system built on human solidarity and equity; a system based on cooperation and not confrontation; on inclusion and not exclusion.” He agreed that every country had a right to use nuclear energy, but highest safety and security standards should be adopted so that no material is diverted for military purposes.

Inaugurating the conference Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed regret at the failures of the global non-proliferation regime. He said that “global non-proliferation, to be successful, should be universal, comprehensive and non-discriminatory and linked to the goal of complete nuclear disarmament.“  He hoped that the US President’s expressed desire to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in their national security strategy will help global non-proliferation and disarmament efforts.

The Conference will discuss options for developing a road map for the growth of nuclear energy and its peaceful applications. Through a series of lectures, presentations and round table discussions the conference will discuss power and non-power applications of nuclear energy. Agriculture and medical applications feature prominently in the agenda provided.

The IAEA projects (on the lower end) that nuclear power generation capacity will be 511 GW(e) in 2030 as compared to 370 GW(e) today. During his address Mr ElBaradei said that public attitude towards nuclear energy has become positive over the last decade. “Nuclear plants are more economical to run, productivity has increased and there is less down-time for maintenance. The long-term stability of the cost of electricity generated by nuclear power is an important attraction.“

The Indian space program has more reason to rejoice with the Chandrayaan-1 Lunar mission discovering water on the moon’s surface. The maiden lunar mission launched in October 2008 carried 11 payloads, one of which was NASA’s moon mineralogy mapper (M3). “The evidence of water molecules on the surface of the moon was found by the moon mineralogy mapper (M3) of the US-based National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) on board Chandrayaan-1,” M3 principal investigator Pieters said in a paper published in the journal Science.

On Wednesday India also launched seven satellites into orbit in a span of 20 minutes. It included the Oceansat-2, India 16th remote sensing satellite and six nano-satellites from various countries.

The Hindu reports that Russia has offered to help India build an advanced radar. “As the race to secure the Indian Air Force’s $10-billion tender for 126 combat jets reached the crucial stage of flight trials, Russia, on top of a full technology transfer, is offering India help in building its own advanced radar. This would put India in the elite league of manufacturers of some of the most sophisticated defence equipment.“

On the Pakistan side of things, Pakistani troops fired almost 135 rounds on Indian posts in Jammu and Kashmir’s Poonch district yesterday. No casualties were reported. “Pakistani troops fired intermittently from nine of their posts on Indian forward positions in Mendhar and Krishanghati from 1955 to 2020 hrs, Brigadier General (Staff), 16 Corps, Gurdeep Singh Puri said.” This is reported to be the second violation of the ceasefire agreement between the two countries in the past one month.

At  the same time Pakistan has also put Jamaat Chief Hafiz Saeed under house arrest. India has demanded that the alleged 26/11 mastermind be investigated and punished.

A few months ago India seemed to have scored over China when it secured a $2.6 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). China had aggressively objected to the loan because a significant part ($60 million) was allotted for watershed management projects in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, a “disputed territory” according to China. The ADB does not have a policy on projects in ‘disputed areas’ and had therefore asked India to resolve the issue bilaterally when China objected to the loan. India seemed to have managed to convince the ADB to not indulge China on bilateral issues when it was granted the loan in June.

However, the Indian Express reports that China has now won a ‘disclosure agreement’ which would prevent the ADB from formally acknowledging Arunachal Pradesh to be a part of India. China is said to have won the vote by a narrow margin and in spite of the United States and the Western bloc voting in India’s favor. The vote is not only diplomatically humiliating for India, but it also raises questions about its relations with Australia, Japan and other East Asian countries who voted against it.

Relations between Australia and India are cordial but there are concerns about Australia’s refusal to consider a nuclear deal, and the racial attacks on Indian students there. Japan and India have had strong relations for centuries which were strengthened due to India’s Look East policy. Trade between the two countries is strong and Japan is among the top foreign investors in India. It also has good trade relations with South Korea and recently signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with it. Other South East Asian countries are also being courted by India particularly since the 1990s policy which recently culminated into a FTA with the ASEAN.

The support of these countries during the ADB’s vote on the loan in June was seen as a sign of growing ties. One could hope that if some day the bilateral border dispute between India and China were to require international involvement, the East Asian nations could be lobbied to support India. International support for one particular side or the semblance of it can have a direct impact on bilateral negotiations. But the recent vote in China’s favor concerning the ‘disputed territory’ indicates strong Chinese influence in political matters in the region. India would have to step up its game and concentrate on improving its political clout with its East Asian neighbors. It needs to be alert of Chinese diplomatic manoeuvrings and not relax after winning every small battle.

The Indian Military has increased its presence along the Line of Actual Control with China. According to media reports 50 percent of the troops along the border have been moved to forward posts as part of ‘Operation Alert.’ The Indian military has downplayed the deployment of troops and claims that it is part of an annual exercise for the maintenance of forward posts. However, the move is seen to be in reaction to reports of troop mobilization and increased incursions along the Actual Line of Control by the Chinese Army. A meeting of high-level Indian officials to discuss the issue was scheduled for Thursday. But it was postponed without official explanation.

Earlier this month there were reports of Chinese troops entering Indian territory in Ladakh and painting the boulders and rocks in the region. “The border patrol discovered the red paint markings on various rocks and boulders along the Zulung La (pass) on July 31 and the Chinese had entered into the area and written “China” and “China” all over the place, the sources said.“

It was also reported that the Chinese army had undertaken some construction activity across the Karokoram ranges. “The Chinese Army - PLA - has been engaged in construction activities across the Karakoram ranges which could be used for either stationing of additional personnel or mounting a camera for monitoring Indian troop movement, official sources said.”

India and China have long undertaken regular border talks regarding disputed territories along the Line of Actual Control that begins to the west in Kashmir and ends to the east in Arunachal Pradesh.

India’s Atomic Energy Commission Chairman, Dr. Anil Kakodkar, announced during his speech at IAEA’s 53rd General Conference that India had designed an Advanced Heavy Water Reactor-Low Enriched Uranium (AHWR-LEU) that uses thorium along with low enriched uranium as fuel. He said that “the reactor has a significantly lower requirement of mined uranium per unit energy produced as compared to most of the current generation thermal reactors. This version of the design also can meet the requirement of medium sized reactors, in countries with small grids while meeting the requirements of next generation systems.”

The new version of the AHWR is part of the third stage of India’s nuclear programme as laid out by the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). The DAE plans to focus its efforts on utilizing the 2,25,000 tonnes of thorium metal available for a nuclear program for power generation to meet India’s growing energy requirements.  The plan mentions that a design objective of the new AHWR is to be “self-sustaining in 233U with most of the power from the conversion of thorium fuel while using plutonium as the external fissile feed.” The AHWR-LEU is also said to meet all safety criteria for an advanced nuclear generating system. A detailed diagram and design features  of the AHWR-LEU can be found at the DAE website.

Another aspect of the thorium cycle as used in this case is that it is better resistant to proliferation. The non-proliferation benefit of the new AHWR is explained by the DAE as follows. ” A part of the fresh fuel for AHWR, bearing uranium-233, will (require to) be produced remotely behind lead shields. This requirement follows from the presence of uranium-232, as an impurity along with uranium-233. (As mentioned earlier), the former, through its radioactive decay, produces some nuclides with high gamma radioactivity. Many experts in the world view this characteristics as an important feature, which makes thorium cycle resistant to proliferation.”

This non-proliferation feature becomes important in view of the proliferation concerns raised regarding India’s civilian nuclear deals with the United States and other countries. It is argued that the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal will encourage other countries to demand nuclear deals and consequently increase the chances of  nuclear proliferation in the region. India has signed five more nuclear deals since the Nuclear Supplier Group’s waiver last Fall.

India and Mongolia signed a civilian nuclear agreement on Monday during Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj’s four day visit to India. The memorandum of understanding between the two countries pertains to development in the field of “peaceful uses of radioactive minerals and nuclear energy” and would allow India to look for uranium in the central Asian nation.

Mongolia is the sixth country to sign a nuclear trade pact with India after the United States, France, Russia, Kazakhstan and Namibia. India is looking at new nuclear trading partners to fulfill its energy needs after Australia stressed its policy of not selling uranium to non-NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) member countries.

While India needs all the uranium it can get to fulfill its energy requirements, it should not look at Mongolia solely as a uranium supplier. The country is also rich in other minerals and India should take advantage of Mongolia’s need for mineral processing facilities and infrastructure to increase its share in the trade of those minerals. It is also strategically located in central Asia between Russia and China, and having a strong partner there could be beneficial to Indian interests in the region. It could help expand trade relations with other central Asian countries, an important aspect in India’s desire to grow as a global power and counter Chinese influence in Asia. Defense relations with Mongolia are good and should be further encouraged by the Indian government. Though Russia has been a trusted friend since independence, having more than one strong ally in the region is important.

The current visit by the Mongolian President is his first foreign tour since taking office in June 2009, and exhibits the importance Mongolia places on good relations with India. The two countries have had religious relations for over 2700 years when Buddhism spread to Mongolia from India. India also supported Mongolia’s inclusion into the United Nations and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Mongolia on its part supports India’s candidature for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council, and resolution of the Kashmir issue on the basis of the Shimla agreement.

Indo-Mongol relations have great potential to flourish on the basis of their historical exchanges and current interdependence. Both governments should make most of the high growth rates of the other country and develop a comprehensive and mutually beneficial relationship.

When India-Pakistan came close to a N-war

After Gen Aslam Beg’s claims about the Pakistani Air Force being ready to attack India’s nuclear facilities in 1990, two US researchers said that Pakistan is ramping up its India-specific nuclear capability. According to them Pakistan has upgraded its nuclear arsenal both “quantitatively (from 60 weapons last year to 70-90 now) and qualitatively — from uranium-base to being plutonium-centric.” This could be a matter of concern for India and the Indian Army Chief said that if the reports are true than Pakistan is crossing the deterrence line. “There is a degree of deterrence for one’s protection, but this is beyond that. They are going well beyond what can be called ‘deterrence.’” Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has always been directed towards India and it is redundant to say that it is increasing its India specific capacity. 

DRDO scientist claims nuclear tests were unsuccessful

The Indian Prime Minister has denied claims that the nuclear tests of 1998 were unsuccessful. He said that “A wrong impression has been given by some scientists which is needless. Kalam has clarified that the tests were successful.”

At the same time, more Indian scientists are supporting K. Sanathanam’s claim about Pokharan II being unsuccessful and India would therefore need more nuclear tests. They are suggesting that India consider its strategic and security options and not join the CTBT under US pressure.

India’s Atomic Energy Commission chief, Anil Kakodkar has said that India does not need to conduct any more nuclear tests as its simulation capabilities are very strong. India has the necessary data and tools to conduct simulated tests successfully.